john mccain has given a gracious concession speech and barak obama has delivered his victory speech to a huge crowd in chicago’s grant park.

as it currently stands with called states, the electoral vote shows 338 for obama, 156 for mccain and the remimaining electoral votes still tied up in tossup races. montana, missouri, indiana and north carolina are all within 1% and alaska hasn’t reported yet.

the republicans have lost every new england seat in the house of representatives. this is the first time an entire region has been represented by a single party.

it looks like the veto-proof majority of 60 democrats (including 2 independents) won’t happen this time with georgia, kentucky and mississippi going to the republican candidate. final projection looks like 55 democrats, 2 independents and 43 republicans.

At 10:20 EST www.electorate.com officially announced that it projects Barak Obama as the 44th President of the United States. It appears to be over now, but can Barak Obama bring the change to the United States needed to make a difference? Please let us know.

i call these the sweet 16 because they are like the candy of the election.
the following is a list of states to watch for election surprises.
without naming names, these states include tossup states and those that have had recently reported or historic irregularities with voter lists, ballot distribution, voting machinery or vote counting, high use or rejection rates for provisional ballots, recent change in long time “party loyalty” or expected change in voter demographics or behavior, use of caging lists, possibility of so-called “bradley effect”, etc.
basically a big mosh pit of unknown, unexpected, unprepared and unfair:
arizona
colorado
georgia
florida
indiana
iowa
missouri
montana
new hampshire
new mexico
nevada
north carolina
north dakota
ohio
pennsylvania
virginia

that’s 173 electoral votes…

there is only one senate race that is really in play this year and that is the nasty fight between incumbent republican senator norm coleman and democratic rival al franken in minnesota. it is essentially a dead heat but tilts slightly toward franken. with almost 10% undecided it could obviously go either way.
incumbent republican senator elizabeth dole will almost surely lose her seat to democratic challenger kay hagan.
the audacious incumbent republican senator ted stevens, a recently convicted felon, will surely lose his seat to democratic challenger mark begich in alaska where republican governor and vice presidential candidate sarah palin is doing nothing to help the needy friend and former benefactor.
incumbent republican senator mitch mcconnell, the current senate minority leader, is in trouble against democratic challenger bruce lunsford in the kentucky race.
with the likely additional losses of the currently republican-held seats in oregon, new hampshire, colorado, new mexico and virginia, the democratic majority in the senate is inching closer to the veto-proof majority of 60. that assumes independents sanders of vermont and lieberman of connecticut are going with the majority. (that would be the same independent joe lieberman who spent the day before the election campaigning with mccain.) that “magic 60″ also would require the unlikely republican losses in georgia and mississippi as well as the aforementioned kentucky race.

there are five states to watch when the election day results are reported:

- ohio (20)

- pennsylvania (21)

- virginia (13)

- north carolina (15)

- florida (27)

these states are important for several reasons. they total 96 electoral votes which is more than a third of the necessary winning total of 270.

ohio, north carolina and florida are currently considered tossup states. it is interesting to note is that there were “issues” with the 2000 vote in florida and the 2004 vote in ohio. it now looks like the 2008 vote in north carolina has an apparently confusing “straight ticket” voting method that could be an issue for this election.

virginia has been solidly republican in the past so it is a new phenomenon for it to be in play for the democrats. similarly, ohio has been bush country the past two elections so that is renewed territory for obama.

pennsylvania appear to have been snatched from the grasp of mccain late in the campaign.

florida also typically votes conservative and there has been a history of voter suppression and vote counting inconsistencies which could make the results very unpredictable.

there are two states, one that leans each direction, that will really hurt each campaign should it go the other way at the end of the day.

for obama, it would be pennsylvania which looked like mccain’s after the conventions but is likely going to obama after a strong finish to the campaign there. he expended significant resources for those 21 electoral votes.

for mccain the most painful loss would be georgia’s 15 electoral votes from a long time republican state. georgia has more than 550,000 new voters registered in 2008 and the 30% of registered voters who are african american have typically turned out in low numbers in past elections, especially in the under 30 age group. there could be significant changes is so many of those elements in this election in a state the democrats last took in a squeaker by clinton over bush in 1992.

there are five of the nine states that are running within the margin of error on most polls that represent a big chunk of electoral votes. these so-called swing states total 84 electoral votes and include florida(27), ohio(20), north carolina(15), indiana(11) and missouri(11).

if obama carries the “kerry states” and one or two of the formerly red tossup states he carries the election.

call this just throwing a dart, rolling the dice, maybe a hunch.

i don’t have any analysis or research to back up this number but i like the way it looks so i am going to predict that barak obama wins with 333 electoral votes. it takes 270 of total 538 electoral votes, so i think this makes enough votes to signify a significant victory.

obama will need a strong mandate to lead in these times. if he gets a strong win, it will be due to the focused, well-organized and tireless two year campaign he ran.

just for kicks, i even assembled a possible scenario of states that would total 333 electoral votes:

- all the atlantic coastal states except south carolina and georgia, plus new hampshire

- wisconsin and all its bordering states

- nevada, new mexico and colorado

- all the pacific coastal states plus hawaii