there are two states, one that leans each direction, that will really hurt each campaign should it go the other way at the end of the day.

for obama, it would be pennsylvania which looked like mccain’s after the conventions but is likely going to obama after a strong finish to the campaign there. he expended significant resources for those 21 electoral votes.

for mccain the most painful loss would be georgia’s 15 electoral votes from a long time republican state. georgia has more than 550,000 new voters registered in 2008 and the 30% of registered voters who are african american have typically turned out in low numbers in past elections, especially in the under 30 age group. there could be significant changes is so many of those elements in this election in a state the democrats last took in a squeaker by clinton over bush in 1992.

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