john mccain has given a gracious concession speech and barak obama has delivered his victory speech to a huge crowd in chicago’s grant park.

as it currently stands with called states, the electoral vote shows 338 for obama, 156 for mccain and the remimaining electoral votes still tied up in tossup races. montana, missouri, indiana and north carolina are all within 1% and alaska hasn’t reported yet.

At 10:20 EST www.electorate.com officially announced that it projects Barak Obama as the 44th President of the United States. It appears to be over now, but can Barak Obama bring the change to the United States needed to make a difference? Please let us know.

i call these the sweet 16 because they are like the candy of the election.
the following is a list of states to watch for election surprises.
without naming names, these states include tossup states and those that have had recently reported or historic irregularities with voter lists, ballot distribution, voting machinery or vote counting, high use or rejection rates for provisional ballots, recent change in long time “party loyalty” or expected change in voter demographics or behavior, use of caging lists, possibility of so-called “bradley effect”, etc.
basically a big mosh pit of unknown, unexpected, unprepared and unfair:
arizona
colorado
georgia
florida
indiana
iowa
missouri
montana
new hampshire
new mexico
nevada
north carolina
north dakota
ohio
pennsylvania
virginia

that’s 173 electoral votes…

there are five states to watch when the election day results are reported:

- ohio (20)

- pennsylvania (21)

- virginia (13)

- north carolina (15)

- florida (27)

these states are important for several reasons. they total 96 electoral votes which is more than a third of the necessary winning total of 270.

ohio, north carolina and florida are currently considered tossup states. it is interesting to note is that there were “issues” with the 2000 vote in florida and the 2004 vote in ohio. it now looks like the 2008 vote in north carolina has an apparently confusing “straight ticket” voting method that could be an issue for this election.

virginia has been solidly republican in the past so it is a new phenomenon for it to be in play for the democrats. similarly, ohio has been bush country the past two elections so that is renewed territory for obama.

pennsylvania appear to have been snatched from the grasp of mccain late in the campaign.

florida also typically votes conservative and there has been a history of voter suppression and vote counting inconsistencies which could make the results very unpredictable.

there are two states, one that leans each direction, that will really hurt each campaign should it go the other way at the end of the day.

for obama, it would be pennsylvania which looked like mccain’s after the conventions but is likely going to obama after a strong finish to the campaign there. he expended significant resources for those 21 electoral votes.

for mccain the most painful loss would be georgia’s 15 electoral votes from a long time republican state. georgia has more than 550,000 new voters registered in 2008 and the 30% of registered voters who are african american have typically turned out in low numbers in past elections, especially in the under 30 age group. there could be significant changes is so many of those elements in this election in a state the democrats last took in a squeaker by clinton over bush in 1992.

there are five of the nine states that are running within the margin of error on most polls that represent a big chunk of electoral votes. these so-called swing states total 84 electoral votes and include florida(27), ohio(20), north carolina(15), indiana(11) and missouri(11).

if obama carries the “kerry states” and one or two of the formerly red tossup states he carries the election.

call this just throwing a dart, rolling the dice, maybe a hunch.

i don’t have any analysis or research to back up this number but i like the way it looks so i am going to predict that barak obama wins with 333 electoral votes. it takes 270 of total 538 electoral votes, so i think this makes enough votes to signify a significant victory.

obama will need a strong mandate to lead in these times. if he gets a strong win, it will be due to the focused, well-organized and tireless two year campaign he ran.

just for kicks, i even assembled a possible scenario of states that would total 333 electoral votes:

- all the atlantic coastal states except south carolina and georgia, plus new hampshire

- wisconsin and all its bordering states

- nevada, new mexico and colorado

- all the pacific coastal states plus hawaii

barak obama is winning in early results from new hampshire. that would be 15-6 so far, with no votes cast for nader. since 1960, dixville notch has opened its polls shortly after midnight to the few registered voters in the northeast hew hampshire village and reported early results. nixon won that first election (8-0) and dixville notch has leaned heavily republican since. for the first time since hubert humphrey beat nixon in 1968, a democrat has started the election day returns with a victory in the first reported precinct.

The presidential candidates have agreed to participate in interviews that will air at halftime of “Monday Night Football,” the day before the election. Chris Berman of ESPN will conduct the segments sometime before the game depending on the candidate’s schedules. The plan is to air them at about 10:15 p.m. EST.

The interviews will give both candidates a last chance to solicit the American public for votes during a prime-time television slot. Monday Night Football will average 12.2 million viewers this season. Ironically, the game will be in Washington DC, home of the Redskins.

Who will win the presidency if the Redskins win? What if the Steelers win? Let us know what you think!

Negative campaigning, also known as “mudslinging”, is trying to win an advantage by referring to the negative aspects of an opponent or of a policy rather than emphasizing one’s own positive attributes or preferred policies.

Barak Obama has said that recently 100% of John McCain’s television advertising has been devoted to negative campaigning. John McCain has said that the amount of airtime Barak Obama devotes to negative campaigning far exceeds his. Please tell us what you think. Which candidate have you seen more negative advertising from?